The End of Petrodollars?

Currency traders who have done their homework are no doubt well aware that one of the countervailing forces to the Dollar’s decline is the so-called petrodollar phenomenon. In short, because oil contracts are settled in USD, the global demand for USD is held artificially high. However, due primarily to the rapid decline of the Dollar, the members of OPEC are studying the feasibility of pricing oil in terms of a basket of currencies, rather than solely in terms of Dollars. This proposal is still in the earliest stages of planning, and it’s not yet clear exactly how it would work. One thing is certain: if such a change were implemented, the decline of the Dollar would accelerate. OPEC is scheduled to hold several high-level meetings over the next month, which should produce further developments. Reuters reports:

Venezuela's Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said…“The need to establish a basket of currencies ... will probably be a point of discussion in the next OPEC summit.”

Brazil Continues to Intervene

For nearly two months, the Central Bank of Brazil was content to sit on the sidelines and watch its currency, the Real, appreciate rapidly against the Dollar. Beginning on October 8, however, the Central Bank has intervened in forex markets every day as part of a targeted effort to depress the Real. Its efforts have been relatively straightforward; rather than issue currency stabilization bonds, the Central Bank has opted to purchase massive quantities of Dollar-denominated assets in the open market, bringing its foreign exchange reserves to $168 Billion. Moreover, its efforts have been largely successful, as the Real has fallen slightly against the Dollar during this period of intervention. However, logic (and past experience) dictate that as soon as it stops intervening, the Real will resume its previous (upward) course against the Dollar. Bloomberg News reports:

Foreign flows into Brazilian financial markets and booming commodity exports have made the real the best performer against the dollar this year among the 16 most-actively traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg, gaining 20 percent.

Carry Trade Continues to Suffer

The carry trade is officially unwinding, if not coming to an outright end; the result is that the Yen is belatedly joining the ranks of the rest of the world's major currencies, which have risen tremendously against the Dollar. The reason for the sudden weakness in the carry trade (i.e. Yen strength) is volatility. The US "credit crunch" began to significantly effect US bond and stock market valuations almost four months ago, but the full impact still hasn't been felt. The latest development concerns the quarterly earnings release for Freddie Mac, an American company whose main purpose is to provide liquidity to the US mortgage market, through the buying and selling of mortgage-backed securities. However, Freddie Mac is now bleeding money, and while it is unofficially guaranteed by the federal government, investors are seriously questioning its ability to prop up the ailing market for housing CDOs. And this uncertainty is causing investors to eschew risk, in short, to abandon the carry trade in favor of more traditional forex strategies. Reuters reports:

The low-yielding Japanese currency tends to do well in times of risk aversion because investors unwind carry trades that use cheaply borrowed yen to buy higher-yielding currencies.

Swiss Franc Benefits from Volatility

As the Japanese Yen continues to enjoy the carry trade limelight, another currency fulfilling a similar role has been largely overlooked: the Swiss Franc. While not quite as low as rates in Japan, Swiss interest rates are still extremely modest by international standards. As a result, many carry traders have used the Swiss Franc in much the same way as the Japanese Yen, selling it short in favor of higher-yielding currencies. And, just as the Japanese Yen has begun climbing over the last few months, so has the Swiss Franc. The volatility in capital markets caused by the credit crunch is just as prevalent in forex markets, and is leading currency traders to eschew yield (high interest rates) in favor of stability, which benefits currencies like the Franc. The Economic Times reports:

Another trader with a multinational bank said with carry trades now coming under heavy pressure and banks being reluctant to fund investors entering into such trades, risk aversion seems to be taking over the global currency markets.

Fed to Hold Rates?

In a recent speech, a prominent Federal Reserve Board governor strongly hinted that the Fed would maintain US interest rates at current levels at the Fed's next meeting. The Fed is caught in the delicate position of trying to balance economic growth with the specter of inflation. While technically the Fed is always trying to meditate between these two outcomes, its current position is especially tenuous since the US economy is trending downward while inflation trends upward. Despite the emphatic claims to the contrary, futures markets are still pricing in a rate cut, setting the stage for a showdown with the Fed. As usual, the Dollar's fate hangs in the balance. The Financial Times reports:

Mr Kroszner said that in the near term "the economy will probably go through a rough patch" with falls in house prices, home construction and subdued consumer spending. He did not rule out a future cut in rates.